Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Estimate the annual withdrawal your portfolio can sustain over a long retirement. Uses a 7% real return assumption and the "4% rule" as baseline, with sequence-of-returns adjustment for early-year market risk.

What the 4% rule actually says

The "4% rule" comes from the 1998 Trinity Study, which analyzed historical 30-year retirement periods. The finding: a portfolio of 50-75% stocks, withdrawing 4% of initial value (inflation-adjusted) annually, survived 100% of historical 30-year periods.

What it doesn't say:

• 4% is rigid — modern variable-spending strategies (Guyton-Klinger, VPW) let you safely spend 5-5.5% on average with modest spending flexibility.
• 4% assumed 30-year retirement. If you retire at 55 and want a 40-year plan, 3.3% is more defensible.
• Sequence of returns matters enormously. Retiring into a bear market with 4% is riskier than retiring into a bull market with 5%.
• The study assumed all US stocks + bonds. International exposure, real estate, other diversification shifts the math.

Social Security integration

Most retirees' biggest guaranteed-income source is Social Security. A typical married couple at full retirement age receives $45-70K/year combined. That reduces what the portfolio needs to cover.

Example: $1.2M portfolio, $110K spending target, $42K from SS. Portfolio needs to generate $68K/year = 5.7% withdrawal. Aggressive on a 4% rule basis, but may still work with variable spending and a healthy stock allocation.